DraftKings CASH POOL | NFL Week 14

NFL Week 14 Cash Pool: Below are the players that I consider to be viable plays on DraftKings in Cash Games (H2H, Double-Ups, 50/50s). This article is updated throughout the weekend with a final update at 12:00 PM EST on Sunday to account for surprise inactives and late-week news.

UPDATE:

IN: DeAndre Washington ($4,000)

OUT: Myles Gaskin ($5,600)

QB

Aaron Rodgers ($7,500): For the second straight week, Aaron Rodgers is looking like the best quarterback play on DraftKings. The Packers have the highest implied team total on the slate (31.5), and are likely to find themselves playing with pace against a defense that can’t stop anyone. Rodgers has produced a minimum of 23.5 points in seven straight games and has thrown 3+ touchdowns in 9/12 games this season.  

Justin Herbert ($6,800): Despite looking thoroughly confused in last week’s blowout loss to New England, Justin Herbert is an easy bounce back candidate to believe in. The Falcons defense has allowed the third most passing yards per-game to be thrown against them and they are currently giving up a league-leading 24.11 FPPG to opposing QBs. Averaging 51.33 pass attempts per-game, Herbert is a safe bet to score 20+ points on DraftKings; a feat he’s accomplished in 9/11 career starts.

QB Positional Notes: My most obvious omission from the list above is Patrick Mahomes ($8,100). Theoretically, Mahomes is a solid play every week and should always be in consideration for cash when on the main slate. However, with such strong high-priced plays at RB and WR this week, I can’t justify paying <$8,000 for a QB in cash. The $600 discount down to Rodgers can go a long way in the rest of a lineup. I would prefer to find the extra $700 to get up to Rodgers from Herbert, but this is a spot I’m willing to compromise on if it bolsters the rest of the lineup.   

RB

Derrick Henry ($8,700): The dangers of paying a premium price on DraftKings for running backs with limited receiving roles were revealed to Derrick Henry owners last week. Henry rushed for 60 scoreless-yards and caught only 1 ball for a grand total of 6.9 points at a whopping $9,200 price tag. While one could argue that it’s cosmically impossible for King Henry to fail twice in a row (in December), especially against a Jacksonville team that he’s been the absolute daddy of for years now, it’s hard to click ‘Draft Player,’ on a guy priced at $8,700 on a full PPR site with a realistic one target expectation.  

James Robinson ($7,500): Seeing some of the best usage at the position in 2020, James Robinson should once again be the focal point of The Jaguars offense. Robinson has averaged 24.3 touches-per-game over his last six, and has seen 4+ targets in 9/12 games this season. Tennessee is allowing the eighth most FPPG to opposing RBs in 2020.    

Austin Ekeler ($7,000): Projecting as one of the top pt/$ plays at the position, Austin Ekeler deserves heavy consideration in cash games for Week 14. The Falcons defense has operated as a pass funnel for the majority of the season; allowing the fifth-fewest FPPG to opposing RBs. However, they still rank inside the top-12 in terms of receptions allowed to the position. Ekeler’s usage as a receiver with Justin Herbert under center gives him one of the best floor/ceiling combinations on DraftKings on a weekly basis – regardless of matchup.     

David Montgomery ($6,500): After producing his best two games of the season in back-to-back weeks facing the worst run defense in the league (DET) and the third-worst run defense in the league (GB); David Montgomery gets the opportunity to complete the nut matchup trifecta in his Week 14 game against the second-worst run defense in the league (HOU). That being said, if matchup is the only reason that someone is a good play, they probably aren’t actually that good of a play. Montgomery has seen a $1,000 price increase since last week. The Bears are underdogs this week (+1) with an uninspiring team total (22.25). Matt Nagy also seems committed to featuring failed WR Cordarrelle Patterson as a change-of-pace back; C.Patt has seen 27-touches over the last three weeks.     

J.D. McKissic ($4,900): Antonio Gibson has been ruled out with a toe injury that he sustained during Monday night’s upset win over The Steelers. Gibson left early in the game, and J.D. McKissic proceeded to dominate backfield snaps, out-snapping Peyton Barber 74%:33%. McKissic went on to see 10 targets, a threshold that he’s cleared in three of Washington’s last five games. McKissic is an extremely game-flow dependent player. If Washington finds itself with a lead in this game (a very realistic possibility), it wouldn’t be shocking to see Barber finish with a larger share of the backfield in snaps.  

DeAndre Washington ($4,000): Myles Gaskin had been ruled out, as has Salvon Ahmed and Matt Brieda in Week 14. As a result, DeAndre Washington figures to be heavily involved in The Dolphins offense. Priced at the stone minimum, the $1,600 discount off of Gaskin balances out the unfortunate talent downgrade you embrace by pivoting to Washington. Washington ran the ball 13 times and saw 5 targets on 48% of snaps in Week 12 when both Salvon Ahmed and Myles Gaskin were out.  Backfield snaps that week were split: Washington (48%), Breida (32%), and Laird (14%). With Breida unable to clear the COVID-19 list in time to play, Washington should see 65+% of snaps and 15+ touches with receiving work in this Sunday’s matchup. For what it’s worth: this is also a revenge game for Washington, who was dumped by The Chiefs in November for a conditional seventh round  pick in favor of the increasingly dusty Le’Veon Bell.

RB Positional Notes: The thought of fading a chalk Derrick Henry in a supreme matchup in December is sickening. However, the depth of the RB pool this week makes for an excruciatingly difficult decision. It’s hard not to settle for a cheaper core of RBs with comparable workloads and use the savings to jam in Davante Adams. UPDATE: DeAndre Washington’s sudden availability at the min-price allows for Adams/Henry LUs without the same degree of sacrifice. It costs less to play Washington/Henry than it would have to play Robinson/Gaskin.

WR

Davante Adams ($9,300): Not much needs to be said about Davante Adams. Leading the NFL in red zone targets (26) and tied for a league-lead in targets-per-game (11.1), Adams is as safe as they come. Rodgers’ go-to pass catcher has caught a touchdown in seven straight games and has scored multiple touchdowns in four games this season. Even with a <$9,000 price tag, Adams is projecting as one of the top pt/$ plays on the slate.

Keenan Allen ($7,700): Tied with Adams for a league-leading 11.1 targets-per-game, Keenan Allen is once again an elite volume play on DraftKings. Having seen 10+ targets in 9/10 full games played since Herbert took over as starter, Allen should continue to be the focal point of The Chargers offense in a pristine matchup. No player on The Falcons defense is equipped to handle Allen in Week 14; Atlanta is allowing the second-most FPPG to WR this season.   

Corey Davis ($5,700): Four years later, Corey Davis is reminding the NFL why he was drafted with a top-5 pick in 2017. AJ Brown missed consecutive practices on Wednesday and Thursday this week, but is reportedly expected to play. On a certain level, it feels like chasing points by plugging Davis into a cash lineup one week after he goes 11-182-1. Still, the $1,600 price discrepancy between him and Brown ($7,300) does not reflect the current roles that these players have in Tennessee. The Jaguars are allowing the fifth most FPPG to opposing WRs in 2020.   

Curtis Samuel ($5,200): The versatile fourth-year receiver was activated from the COVID-19 list on Friday afternoon, while DJ Moore was unable to clear the protocol. Christian McCaffrey will also miss this game. An already positive matchup against Denver’s beatable secondary was made better this week by A.J. Bouye’s recent suspension. Robby Anderson ($6,200) is a phenomenal play as well, but the $1,000 discount to Curtis Samuel is important this week. Targets in The Panthers offense are likely to consolidate between the two WRs with Mike Davis sprinkled in as well.

Bershad Perriman ($3,900) & Braxton Berrios ($3,000): Denzel Mims has been ruled out this week, and Jamison Crowder ($5,400) reportedly suffered a calf injury in Thursday’s practice which puts him in doubt for Week 14. As we’ve seen at multiple points this season, Braxton Berrios would be utilized by The Jets as a 1:1 replacement for Crowder, should he miss the game. Meanwhile, without Denzel Mims on the outside, Perriman is the leading candidate to absorb the bulk of errant downfield throws by Sam Darnold this week. Due to Darnold’s documented propensity to favor the slot, as well as the $900 price discount, Berrios would be my preferred play between the two if Crowder misses. If Crowder plays, Berrios would be unplayable and the $1,500 discount down to Perriman would make him the superior option in The Jets passing attack. 12-games into the season, Seattle remains the absolute nut matchup for opposing WRs.      

WR Positional Notes: As is the case with RB, you could argue that paying a premium for Davante Adams is incorrect when you consider the historical rate at which chalky, high priced WRs fail to hit value – and with the strength of players with comparable target projections for significantly cheaper (I’m looking at you Keenan Allen). Even if that’s true, I will be working tirelessly until 12:59 P.M. on Sunday afternoon to figure out how I can jam Adams and the 30+ points he is going to score this week into my cash line. Punting with one of the Jets WRs seems necessary this week, regardless of whether it’s Henry or Adams you are spending up for. The most difficult decision point for me this week is which mid-range WR to trust between Corey Davis and Curtis Samuel. My lean on Friday afternoon as I write this: go with the guy on a team with a 6-point higher implied total.    

TE

Logan Thomas ($3,300): After relentlessly hyping up Logan Thomas as a final-round Best Ball gem in the offseason, the 2020 TE9 on the season is making The DFS Dose proud. Fresh off of a 100% snap, 9-98-1 game, Logan Thomas is easily projectable to be on the field for the majority of this game.   

Cole Kmet ($2,900): Having fully over-taken Jimmy Graham as The Bears top TE, Cole Kmet is a decent bet to follow up his career high 14.7 DraftKings points from last week with another solid effort.

TE Positional Notes: Logan Thomas and Cole Kmet are my two favorite TE plays as things currently sit. While Travis Kelce is a strong play in a vacuum, paying $7,000+ for a TE in cash is a losing strategy. It’s actually a good week for #TeamPayDown. In addition to Thomas and Kmet, you could make also make cases for Jordan Reed in a revenge game, Irv Smith if Kyle Rudolph sits, Jacob Hollister in the nut matchup, and even Ian Thomas at the min price depending on his gameday status. Realistically, the vast majority of these players will put up similar, uninspiring production lines.

Priority Plays: Davante Adams, Austin Ekeler, Myles Gaskin

Fades: Patrick Mahomes, Aaron Jones, David Montgomery, Travis Kelce

Cash Game Results 2020:

Week 1: 185.1 Points. 87% Win Rate (83.3% of 78 H2Hs, 100% of 22 DUs)

Week 2: 161.9 Points. 91.3% Win Rate (90.3% of 103 H2Hs, 100% of 12 DUs)

Week 3: 112.1 Points. 17.7% Win Rate (21% of 119 H2Hs, 0% of 22 DUs)

Week 4: 139.50 Points. 81% Win Rate (77.9% of 104 H2Hs, 100% of 17 DUs)

Week 5: 143.68 Points. 31.1% Win Rate (35.9% of 103 H2Hs, 0% of 16 DUs)

Week 6: 138.12 Points. 32.45% Win Rate (35.9% of 103 H2Hs, 0% of 11 DUs)

Week 7: 199.40 Points. 37.5% Win Rate (32.5 % H2Hs, 91.6% of 12 DUs)

Week 8: 112.66 Points.55.5% Win Rate (61.9% of 105 H2Hs, 0% of 12 DUs)

Week 9: 162.60 Points. 97% Win Rate (95.7% of 119 H2Hs, 100% of 11 DUs)

Week 10: 94.10 Points. 2.2% Win Rate (4% of 119 H2Hs, 0% of 12 DUs).

Week 11: 167.82 Points. 92.5% Win Rate (92% of 161 H2Hs, 100% of 13 DUs)

Week 12: 121.98 Points. 23.7% Win Rate (37/140 H2Hs, 0% of 16 DUs)

Week 13: 152.4 Points. 57.4% Total Win Rate, 54.4% of 125 H2Hs, 9/9 DUs

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