NFL Week 13 Cash Pool: Below are the players that I consider to be viable plays on DraftKings in Cash Games (H2H, Double-Ups, 50/50s). This article is updated throughout the weekend with a final update at 12:00 PM EST on Sunday to account for surprise inactives and late-week news.
Aaron Rodgers ($6,800): Playing at an all-pro level, Aaron Rodgers and The Packers will host an Eagles team on the verge of self-implosion. Doug Pederson’s undying loyalty for Carson Wentz will likely keep this game from being close; The Packers are favored by over a touchdown (-9). Still, with a relatively shallow pool of cash viable quarterbacks, Rodgers matchup-proof floor/ceiling combination is appealing. Rodgers has thrown the ball 30+ times in 10/11 games and produced 25 DraftKings points or more in five of his last six games. The Packers have the fourth highest implied team total this week (29).
Taysom Hill ($6,300): Still hoping to throw his first NFL passing touchdown, Taysom Hill’s dual-threat ability makes him an interesting QB option in the mid-range. In this Brees-less iteration of The Saints offense, Hill is more likely to keep the ball and run, than he is to dump it off to Alvin Kamara. Hill rushed 10-times in each of his first two-starts, averaging 46.5 yards and two touchdowns per-game. Hill dominated The Falcons in their first matchup two weeks ago, completing 78.3% of his passes for 233 yards.
Mitchell Trubisky ($5,400): Despite being involved in the second lowest totaled game on the slate (45), on a team with a middling ITT (24), Mitchell Trubisky aka Trashbiscuit is arguably my favorite QB play this week. Biscuit is a certified scrub, but when it comes to playing against The Detroit Lions, it’s like he’s a completely different player. Mitch has thrown for 3 touchdowns in four straight games against The Lions. Fresh off of a start where he threw 46 times against Green Bay, we could see another high volume game for Trubisky in this spot. The Lions interm HC Darrell Bevell has stated that he plans to use pace as a weapon, which is good for every player in this game on both sides of the ball. Higher tempo equals more plays, which equals more fantasy points. At $5,400, you only need 16.2-points to “hit value.” If you can scrape 20-points out of Trubisky in cash, you’re sitting pretty. If you get 25, you’re sailing to the money.
QB Positional Notes: I want to take a stand on Trubisky being able to sustain his success against The Lions this week. However, with Kenny Golladay out and Darnell Mooney closer to doubtful than questionable, the red-flags surrounding the general scoring environment of this game are beginning to wave in mass. As value continues to open on this slate, paying up at QB is feeling more and more viable.
Dalvin Cook ($9,500): Early week concerns about Dalvin Cook’s workload being scaled back after a Week 12 injury scare have generally subsided. Cook is once again in line to handle 20-25 touches and is in a phenomenal spot. The Vikings are massive home favorites against The Jaguars (-10.5), and have the highest ITT on the slate (31). Jacksonville has given up both the fifth most yards, and fifth most fantasy points per-game to opposing running backs in 2020.
Derrick Henry ($9,200): It’s December, which means that Derrick Henry’s unstoppable march towards the 2020 rushing title starts this week, at home against Cleveland. The Titans’ ITT has jumped from 28 to 29.75 and is currently the second highest on the slate. Favored at home (-5.5), this is a classic smash spot for King Henry. The most concerning issue with Henry in cash, is that at his $9,200 price tag on DraftKings, you really need him to rush for 100 yards and score two touchdowns to hit value. Historically, he’s added very little value as a receiver. It’s worth noting that on Thursday, Titans HC Mike Vrabel, indicated that the team would be making an effort to throw the ball more to Henry. If that’s true and The Titans are able to feed him two or three additional receptions per-game, Henry will quickly become the most valuable player in fantasy football for the final five weeks of the season.
Austin Ekeler ($7,100): In Week 12, Austin Ekeler continued the trend of making money for DFS players who were sharp enough to fade the public’s fear of guys returning in their first game back from injury. Ekeler had a career-high 25 touches on only 72% of The Chargers’ snaps. A legitimate threat to see double-digit targets in every game he plays, Ekeler is projecting as one of the best point-per-dollar plays on DraftKings this week.
Devontae Booker ($5,500): Josh Jacobs has been ruled out for Week 13, immediately pushing Devontae Booker into the conversation as one of the best pt/$ RB plays on the slate. Booker has been consistently utilized in The Raiders’ offense even when Jacobs was healthy. He’s been on the field for an average of 30.5% of snaps over the last four weeks. In Week 10, Booker showed that he was capable of handling a significant workload; averaging 5.06 YPC on 16-attempts for 81 yards and 2 touchdowns. The Raiders have the fifth highest ITT on the slate (27.75) and are heavily favored (-9.5) against the decrepit New York Jets.
David Montgomery ($5,500): After finally managing to convert some of his opportunity into actual production last week, Montgomery finds himself in an appealing matchup against a Lions defense that has conceded a league-leading 33.29 FPPG to opposing RBs. Montgomery’s best quality this season has been his usage. Since Week 4, Montgomery has averaged 14.1 att/pg and seen 5 or more targets in 6/7 games. This is a good spot for the Chicago back on paper. However, failing to capitalize on opportunity is D. Mont’s specialty and even as massive chalk, I think a full-fade is squarely in play.
RB Positional Notes: It’s hard to go wrong with any of the players listed above. Cook and Henry are both monster plays, although you will almost certainly only be able to play one of them in cash. My current lean is Henry. Ekeler is my favorite play on the board, which leaves a decision between Booker/Montgomery for RB3. Booker has a better team total, but is traveling from West to East for a 1 p.m. game. Montgomery is a home favorite, but will be facing a division team for the second time in a year; a game situation that directly correlates with lower scoring expectations. This will be a 1v1 to think on for the duration of the weekend.
Allen Robinson ($6,700): Having seen more than double the targets of any other Bears player with Mitchell Trubisky at QB, Robinson is set up as an elite wide receiver play in Week 13. Robinson has seen 9 or more targets in 9/11 games this season and will be facing a Lions team that has given up the ninth-most FPPG to opposing WRs. UPDATE: Robinson was added to The Bears’ injury report on Friday and practiced on a limited basis. Darnell Mooney was also a late-week addition to the injury report and registered a DNP. Assuming Robinson plays, he remains one of the best plays at the position this week.
DeVante Parker ($6,400): Having displayed solid chemistry with Ryan Fitzpatrick dating back to last year, DFS players hoping to jam in Parker this week should actively be watching for news on who will start at QB for The Dolphins this week. While Tua Tagovailoa is not a “downgrade,” for The Dolphins, he is a downgrade for Parker’s upside. The Bengals slowed down their offensive pace of play significantly last week in Brandon Allen’s first start in place of the injured Joe Burrow. This game has the potential to be the most lopsided matchup of Week 13 (MIA -11.5).
Brandin Cooks ($5,600): The Texans offense got shaken up this week following news of a 6-game PED-based suspension for Will Fuller. With Fuller gone, the 23.4% share of team targets and 33% share of team Air Yards that he commanded will have to be dispersed among Deshaun Watson’s remaining pass catchers. While Coutee, Coulter, Fells and Akins will all get a bump in their projections, Cooks should be our primary focus for DFS purposes. Having commanded a decent amount of opportunity already this season (22.4% targets, 26% Air Yards), Cooks will operate as The Texans clear-cut WR1. An underrated baller, Cooks is now poised to go for 1000 yards on his fourth different team, with his fourth different QB in seven seasons. He is projecting as the best pt/$ WR on the slate.
Denzel Mims ($4,100): Seemingly on the precipice of a breakout, Denzel Mims aka The Baylor Butcher, is one of the better values at WR this week. Mims has seen 7 or more targets in three consecutive games and has accumulated <60 yards in each contest. Accounting for a team-leading 34.8% of The Jets Air Yards, the second-round rookie should continue to see opportunity against The Raiders this week.
Keke Coutee ($3,500): As noted above, 23.4% of The Texans targets will suddenly need to go elsewhere following the suspension of Will Fuller. With Randall Cobb still sidelined, Coutee should maintain his role as the full-time slot WR for Houston. It’s worth noting that Coutee was only on the field for 50% of The Texans offensive snaps on Thanksgiving against Detroit. That was not a competitive game and we could realistically expect that number to rise against more competent opponents. Still, Coutee lacks any true upside. The $2,100 it costs to upgrade to Brandin Cooks this week would be money well spent in DraftKings cash games.
Anthony Miller ($3,100): Over the past four games, Anthony Miller’s targets have dropped from 11, to 8, to 7, to 6 last week. With Darnell Mooney’s status in question for Week 13, Miller might be able to stop the bleeding against a Lions team he’s had success against in recent games. Miller had a season-high in yardage and fantasy points against Detroit in Week 1 (76 yards, 17.6 pts.). Miller’s career –best performance (9-140 on 13 targets) came against The Lions in Week 13 last year.
WR Positional Notes: In terms of roster construction, this week feels like the complete opposite of last week. In Week 12, it was a priority to fit multiple WRs that were priced above $7,000 in cash. This week, I don’t have a single <$7,000 WR listed in the cash pool. I think our best bet is to attack the mid-range and find the value needed to get up to the high-priced RBs. Brandin Cooks and Allen Robinson are my favorite plays at the position.
Robert Tonyan ($3,700): Robert Tonyan has quietly become the TE4 in PPR this season. Coming off of back-to-back 5-target, 5-catch games with a touchdown in each over his last two; Tonyan is a cheap way to get exposure to The Packers offense this week. Davante Adams is a strong play as always, but his $9,000 price tag is prohibitive for cash games. Aaron Jones is in a disgusting workload split with Jamaal Williams. Being accompanied by good quarterback play on a team with a solid scoring expectation is all you can ask for with a >$4,000 TE on DraftKings.
Anthony Firkser ($2,500): Priced at the stone minimum, Anthony Firkser is set to handle the bulk of snaps at TE for The Titans with Jonnu Smith ruled out. The Titans have the second-highest ITT on the slate (29.75). Cleveland has given up the second-most receptions (5.73 p/g) and second-most fantasy points (15.70 p/g) to the position.
TE Positional Notes: As noted above, scoring environment and price are the most important factors when choosing a cash game TE. Tonyan and Firkser are both cheap, and on teams with high ITTs. It’s hard to look at any TE and consider them a ‘priority’ in cash this year on DK.
Priority Plays: Austin Ekeler, Devontae Booker, Brandin Cooks
Fades: James Robinson, Darren Waller, Keke Coutee
Cash Game Results 2020:
Week 1: 185.1 Points. 87% Win Rate (83.3% of 78 H2Hs, 100% of 22 DUs)
Week 2: 161.9 Points. 91.3% Win Rate (90.3% of 103 H2Hs, 100% of 12 DUs)
Week 3: 112.1 Points. 17.7% Win Rate (21% of 119 H2Hs, 0% of 22 DUs)
Week 4: 139.50 Points. 81% Win Rate (77.9% of 104 H2Hs, 100% of 17 DUs)
Week 5: 143.68 Points. 31.1% Win Rate (35.9% of 103 H2Hs, 0% of 16 DUs)
Week 6: 138.12 Points. 32.45% Win Rate (35.9% of 103 H2Hs, 0% of 11 DUs)
Week 7: 199.40 Points. 37.5% Win Rate (32.5 % H2Hs, 91.6% of 12 DUs)
Week 8: 112.66 Points.55.5% Win Rate (61.9% of 105 H2Hs, 0% of 12 DUs)
Week 9: 162.60 Points. 97% Win Rate (95.7% of 119 H2Hs, 100% of 11 DUs)
Week 10: 94.10 Points. 2.2% Win Rate (4% of 119 H2Hs, 0% of 12 DUs).
Week 11: 167.82 Points. 92.5% Win Rate (92% of 161 H2Hs, 100% of 13 DUs)
Week 12: 121.98 Points. 23.7% Win Rate (37/140 H2Hs, 0% of 16 DUs)