DRAFTKINGS CASH POOL: NFL Week 4 DFS CASH GAME Picks

NFL Week 4 Cash Pool: Below are the players that I consider to be viable plays on DraftKings in Cash Games (H2H, Double-Ups, 50/50s). This article is updated throughout the weekend with a final update at 12:00 PM EST on Sunday to account for surprise inactives and late-week news.

UPDATE

IN: Kenny Golladay

OUT: Clyde Edwards-Helaire

QB

Deshaun Watson ($6,600): After being dealt an incredibly difficult start to the season schedule, Deshaun Watson and The Texans will look to get right against the winless Vikings. Minnesota’s inability to pressure opposing quarterbacks will be a far cry from the run of KC, BAL, PIT that Watson has already seen. Undoubtedly frustrated by the slow start to the year, The Texans rising implied team total (28.5) indicates they are preparing to aggressively bounce back.

Ryan Fitzpatrick ($5,400): Harvard legend Ryan Fitzpatrick is not a player that I imagined I’d be writing up at any point in 2020 – but here we are. In the past two weeks, FitzMagic has averaged 26.26 FPPG on DraftKings and enters a matchup with Seattle that boosts his Week 4 expectation. Allowing QB1 performances in all three weeks to start the year, The Seahawks combination of high powered offense and unimposing defense creates the ideal fantasy environment for opposing quarterbacks. Equipped with the offensive weapons to keep pace with Seattle, Fitzpatrick is a strong salary saving option in a week that we need every dollar.

QB Positional Notes: As pure plays, Russell Wilson ($7,800) and Josh Allen ($7,300) profile as fantastic cash game options. Their absence from this list is purely salary based. While there are viable ways to get up to them in cash this week, I simply don’t believe that is the optimal build. Unlike week’s 2-3, salary on DraftKings appears to be a scarce resource on this slate. I would speculate that there is a 5-10% chance in any given week for a Fitzpatrick meltdown and sudden NFL introduction to Tua Tagovailoa. Be willing to embrace that risk if you roll Fitz in cash.       

RB

Alvin Kamara ($8,000): Unaffected by Drew Brees’ sudden decline, Kamara is a dual threat weapon unlike any other. Fantasy Football’s number 1 asset, Kamara’s receiving numbers alone would make him the WR4 through three weeks. Despite being able to limit Kenyan Drake’s Week 3 effectiveness, The Lions defense remains a push-over for opposing running backs and Kamara deserves to be the first player plugged into every Week 4 cash game lineup on DraftKings.

Ezekiel Elliot ($7,800): Elliot’s elite usage is that of a player who should be priced above $9,000 on DraftKings. He’s touched the ball no-less than 20-times in each of the first three games, is playing on 93% of snaps, and is averaging 7.3 targets-per-game. Despite having four touchdowns on the young season, Elliot has arguably run cold in the TD-variance department. The Cowboys are -4.5 home favorites with a 30.25 team total in a game that is projected to be the highest scoring matchup in Week 4.     

Darrell Henderson ($5,800): Hyper-athletic second year back Darrell Henderson has made the most of the opportunities he’s had with Cam Akers out and unlikely to return in Week 4. Despite only playing on 45.5% of snaps over the past two weeks, Henderson managed to produce back-to-back weeks of 120 all-purpose yards. The Rams are the run heaviest team in The NFL and should be able to impose their will against a pathetic Giants defense as massive home favorites (-13) with an implied team total of 30.75.

Mike Davis ($5,700): In the five-quarters of football since Christian McCaffrey went down, Davis has converted 16 of the 17 targets he’s seen to receptions. Despite being ineffective on the ground, his role as a receiver out of the backfield makes him an intriguing option on DraftKings at an affordable price. The inexperienced Carolina defense should continually put this team in game scripts that favor Davis.   

Ronald Jones ($4,700) With Leonard Fournette ruled out, Jones projects to see a majority of the touches in Tampa Bay’s backfield in Week 4. As home favorites (-7) with a healthy implied team total (25), this spot sets up well for Jones to produce. His salary is appealing, but the opportunity cost of forgoing another elite RB by plugging RoJo in is something to consider.

RB Positional Notes: Well worth the 31.6% of your salary that it costs to jam them in, cash game lineups on DraftKings in Week 4 should begin with Alvin Kamara and Ezekiel Elliot. Darrell Henderson’s  <50% snap share is the only concerning aspect to an otherwise exceptional play. Mike Davis is a slightly safer option with a much lower ceiling. RB3 will be the biggest decision point on DK this week.       

WR

Amari Cooper ($6,700): Seeing all the volume in the world, Cooper’s 11.6 targets-per-game is good for third in The NFL. Despite having 14 more targets than the next closest Dallas WR, Cooper is the only Cowboys playmaker who has yet to produce a 20-point game on DraftKings. Michael Gallup, CeeDee Lamb, and even Cedrick Wilson have been able to accomplish that feat. His high-floor established, Cooper’s ceiling is something we must keep our eyes peeled for in the coming weeks.       

Kenny Golladay ($6,000): After missing two weeks to a hamstring injury, The Lions eased Kenny Golladay back into action as he saw only 73% of snaps in his Week 3 return. Golladay managed a solid 6-57-1 line on a 7-targets (tied for team lead) and should see his snap share grow as he continues working his way back. Marshon Lattimore has been ruled out and suddenly Golladay’s very difficult matchup becomes one that is extremely favorable. The Lions are expecting to be trailing (+3.5) in a close, high scoring game (54 total).   

Odell Beckham Jr. ($5,900): Since joining Cleveland, OBJ has produced one of the most confusing talent:production ratios that I can ever remember. The stars have aligned for Beckham to have a vintage game against the former-division rival Cowboys in Week 4. Averaging 7.3 targets-per-game and commanding a 26% market share of The Browns targets (40% share of team air yards), this is a now-or-never spot for Odell. Likely to be trailing and forced to abandon the run-heavy approach that they clearly favor, The Browns will have to rely on Mayfield and Beckham tapping into a connection that has largely been absent between them to keep this game close.

DJ Moore ($5,600): While the production hasn’t matched the opportunity, Carolina’s WR1 appears poised for a bounce back. The depressed price tag on DJ Moore will make him one of Week 4’s most popular DFS plays. Top-10 in The NFL in targets with a massive share of his team’s air yards (49%), Moore is the dictionary definition of a buy-low.   

Hunter Renfrow ($4,600): Renfrow is not the type of player that I tend to target on DraftKings, but the spot is too good to ignore. Henry Ruggs is unlikely to play. Bryan Edwards is ruled out, and Tyrell Williams remains on IR. The strength of The Bills defense is their athletic linebackers which should leave expected target-leader Darren Waller with his hands full. After being absolutely torched in the slot by Jamison Crowder, Mike Gesicki, and Cooper Kupp to start the year, Renfrow has a strong matchup and gets a boost to his target projection due to The Raiders injuries.  

Brandin Cooks ($4,500): Leading The Texans in targets, Brandin Cooks appears to be one of the more glaring misprices on the Week 4 slate. His production hasn’t matched the opportunity, but as is the case with Watson, Cooks has struggled in-part, due to the tough three week schedule Houston’s seen so far. The combination of a lackluster secondary and inability to generate defensive pressure, makes The Vikings defense a perfect rebound spot for four-time 1000-yard receiver Brandin Cooks to begin making his mark in 2020.

WR Positional Notes: Will Fuller would have been on this list, but I can’t stomach the thought of three consecutive weeks with WR injuries in my DraftKings cash lineup and the $1,400 discount to Brandin Cooks could be big this week. I think ideal constructions will be built around Beckham and Moore with one of the <5k receivers that I detailed above.    

TE

Darren Waller ($5,200): After a disappointing two-catch performance in Week 3, The Raiders top pass catcher will look to rebound in a home matchup against The Bills. Despite the injuries to Ruggs and Edwards, it will be hard to pay-up to Waller in this spot. The Bills have a dangerously athletic core of linebackers that specialize in eliminating opposing TEs. Still, leading all TEs in targets, Waller is too cheap at $5,200.   

Dalton Schultz ($4,300): After making his name known to the fantasy world with a 9-catch, 10-target performance in Week 2, Schultz continued his journey to fantasy relevance with a solid Week 3 outing. His involvement in the high-powered Dallas offense will make him an every week consideration at fantasy’s driest position. Currently sixth in targets at his position (20, 4 RZ) Schultz will have the opportunity to test The DFS Dose’s theory that Cleveland is the 2020 TE flowchart.     

Logan Thomas ($3,500): For the third straight week, Logan Thomas sets up to be the top value at his position on DraftKings. Thomas is top five in every important TE metric through three weeks (routes run, targets, red zone targets) but is 22nd in TE fantasy points. It may take a quarterback switch and correlated improvement in target quality for Thomas to begin realizing his incredible opportunity.   

OJ Howard ($3,300): With Chris Godwin out and Scotty Miller unlikely to play, Howard is a decent punt-play in Week 4. Rob Gronkowski is pure dust (as expected) and Howard will attempt to capitalize on this chance at an increased target share. Howard is not a good play, but if you are willing to except a possible three points at TE in cash to fit everybody else you want to jam in, he’s an option.

TE Positional Notes: I think you could make arguments that Mike Gesicki ($5,100), TJ Hockenson ($4,800), and Hunter Henry ($4,600) deserve to be on this list as well. I’m not opposed to any of the three; however, writing up every player in a tight price range is not helpful to readers. Dalton Schultz is my favorite 4k TE because of his price and Dallas’ substantially higher team total. How to handle Logan Thomas is an aggravating conundrum and a question without an answer.   

Priority Plays: Alvin Kamara, Ezekiel Elliot, DJ Moore, Odell Beckham Jr.   

Fades: Will Fuller, Joe Mixon, Tyler Lockett, All QBs <$7,000

Cash Game Results 2020:

Week 1: 185.1 Points. 87% Win Rate (83.3% of 78 H2Hs, 100% of 22 DUs)

Week 2: 161.9 Points. 91.3% Win Rate (90.3% of 103 H2Hs, 100% of 12 DUs)

Week 3: 112.1 Points. 17.7% Win Rate (21% of 119 H2Hs, 0% of 22 DUs)

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